In Summary
- Ireland’s Atlantic waters have wind capacity factors 25% higher than the North Sea. A high-ambition scenario of 150 GW by 2075 would produce nearly 20 times Ireland’s current electricity demand, making it a potential pillar of European energy security.
- This paper argues that Ireland’s Atlantic resource is its greatest strategic asset, to be developed through European partnership: Europe provides capital and political backing; Ireland provides wind, jurisdiction, and execution; both share in the resulting energy security.
- Ireland does not need to commit to 150 GW today. It needs to buy the option through seven decisions this decade: establishing an Atlantic Energy Authority, investing in ports and grid, reforming planning, delivering pathfinder projects, negotiating European financing, building skills and security capacity, and creating a Sovereign Energy Fund.
- The Atlantic programme could support 80,000 to 120,000 long-term Irish jobs and generate approximately one billion euro annually in local authority rates, while transforming the west coast into a true second city region around Shannon-Limerick.
Introduction
Ireland sits on one of the best offshore wind resources on the planet. At typical hub heights, wind speeds of 9 to 11 metres per second across much of our western exclusive economic zone deliver capacity factors of 50% to 60%[1], far above the 35% to 45% typical of North Sea sites.[2] In practical terms, the same turbine in the Irish Atlantic produces roughly 25% more electricity than at a typical North Sea location.
Ireland’s maritime zone spans approximately 880,000 square kilometres, one of the largest in Europe.[3] The technical upper bound for offshore wind capacity is roughly 600 gigawatts. This paper does not propose building anything close to that figure. It explores a high-ambition scenario of around 150 GW by 2075, about a quarter of the theoretical ceiling, but still sufficient to fundamentally transform Ireland’s energy position and export role.
At a conservative 50% capacity factor, 150 GW would produce roughly 650 terawatt-hours of electricity per year, nearly 20 times Ireland’s current consumption and a significant slice of Europe’s projected needs in a net-zero system.
That energy goes three places: electrons (powering Ireland and exporting via interconnectors), molecules (green hydrogen produced at coastal hubs), and bits (data centres on the west coast acting as flexible demand). Ireland does not need 650 TWh, but Europe does.
This paper argues that the Atlantic wind resource represents Ireland’s greatest strategic asset and a potential pillar of European energy security.
From Peripheral Economy to Energy Pillar
Ireland has executed transformative long-term strategies before. The IDA-led approach of low corporate tax, EU market access, English language, and targeted sector focus helped transform one of Western Europe’s poorer economies into a global hub for technology and pharmaceuticals. That model required vision, policy continuity across governments, institution-building, and patient investment over decades.
However, the IDA model was fundamentally a strategy of positioning rather than ownership. Ireland offered a uniquely attractive platform for other people’s capital and intellectual property. We host the data centres; we do not own the platforms. We manufacture the pharmaceuticals; we did not discover most of them.
The Atlantic wind resource is different. It is an endowment. Ireland would not be offering a competitive deal on something that exists everywhere else; it would be developing and monetising something that is physically, geographically, and uniquely ours. This is closer to Norway’s relationship with oil than to our FDI playbook, but clean, politically attractive to European partners, and inexhaustible. The wind does not deplete as oil and gas do.
If executed correctly, Ireland shifts from being a price-taker in energy markets to a pillar of a critical European system. Not a monopolist, but a supplier whose reliability and scale give us genuine weight in Brussels, Berlin, and beyond.
A European Project by Design
This vision cannot succeed as a purely Irish endeavour. The scale of investment required (hundreds of billions of euro over several decades) exceeds what Ireland can mobilise alone. More fundamentally, the project’s purpose is European energy security, not just Irish prosperity. It must be structured as a European project with financing and governance to match.
The bargain we propose is straightforward: Europe provides capital and political backing; Ireland provides wind, jurisdiction, and execution capability; both share in the energy security that results.
Three recent developments suggest this proposal would find a receptive audience. First, the Draghi Competitiveness Report of 2024 identified high energy costs as an existential threat to European industry and explicitly called for joint funding of cross-border energy infrastructure.[4] Second, Germany’s H2Global mechanism is already contracting green hydrogen from non-German producers on long-term terms, creating market demand that Ireland could supply.[5] Third, the Celtic Interconnector received over 530 million euro in EU grants, the largest ever energy grant to Ireland, because connecting Irish renewables to the continent was recognised as a European strategic priority.[6]
The Irish Atlantic Energy Vision does not ask Europe to change its policy. It asks Europe to apply its existing energy security and competitiveness policy to the Atlantic at scale.
The Prize in Human Terms
What might this mean for Ireland by 2075?
Employment benchmarks from the UK’s Offshore Wind Industry Council suggest that around 50 GW of offshore wind can support approximately 100,000 direct and indirect jobs across development, manufacturing, ports, construction, and operations.[7] Scaled to 150 GW and adjusted for Ireland’s likely share of the supply chain, the Atlantic programme could support 80,000 to 120,000 long-term Irish jobs. Roughly 40,000 to 60,000 would be in directly energy-related roles such as ports, manufacturing, operations and maintenance, hydrogen production, and data centre operations, with a similar number in local services and the wider economy.
Using historic onshore benchmarks of approximately 7,000 euro per megawatt per year in commercial rates,[8] 150 GW would generate around one billion euro annually in stable, property-tax-like income for local councils hosting Atlantic infrastructure. This would represent a structural change in the finances of western and coastal counties.
If Ireland follows a Norwegian path and channels net Atlantic revenues into a Sovereign Energy Fund, the numbers can become generational, though honest accounting is essential. Unlike oil and gas, where profit margins are vast and the Norwegian state captures 78% of profits through taxation,[9] offshore wind is capital-intensive with thinner margins. The transformational scenario, where a fund grows into the hundreds of billions, requires Ireland to capture the full value chain: manufacturing, hydrogen, data, and significant state ownership of underlying assets. That is an ambition, not a certainty. But the fund should be established now, locking in the principle that Atlantic rents are saved for the long term.
Societally, the west coast becomes the most transformed region. The Limerick-Shannon area emerges as a true second city region, built around turbine manufacturing, port logistics, hydrogen production, and engineering services. Coastal towns from Kerry to Donegal host operations and maintenance bases, data centre campuses, and hydrogen terminals.
The Execution Gap
This vision only has value if we are honest about why it has not happened yet. The obstacles are real and immediate.
Planning as delivery mechanism. Today’s planning system is designed to prevent bad development, not to deliver strategic infrastructure. A system where a developer receives a 47-page request for further information almost a year after applying (as Statkraft did for its NISA project in 2025[10]) is incompatible with consenting three to five gigawatts of capacity annually. The fix requires state-led environmental pre-clearance (where an Atlantic Energy Authority conducts surveys before auctioning leases), a specialist Planning and Environmental Court, and, crucially, inverting the incentive structure so that host communities become the wealthiest local authorities in the country.
Ports and vessels. As of 2025, Belfast is effectively the only port on the island ready for large-scale offshore wind assembly. Shannon Foynes has the geography but requires massive capital works. Meanwhile, a small global fleet of specialised installation vessels is heavily booked in the North Sea and Asia. Ireland cannot rely on the spot market. The state must co-invest in vessel capacity or sign long-term reservation agreements.
Grid constraints. Ireland’s onshore grid is constrained, and data centres in Dublin face connection moratoria. A 150 GW offshore system breaks the current grid model. The Atlantic strategy addresses this by moving demand: instead of squeezing hyperscalers into Dublin, Ireland zones for Atlantic Compute, with data centres on the west coast plugged directly into offshore wind hubs, acting as flexible demand that ramps up when the wind blows.
Institutional capacity. Ireland cannot deliver a 50-year project through task forces or departmental sub-units. It needs an Atlantic Energy Authority that fuses the commercial agility of the IDA with the regulatory independence of the Central Bank: statutory autonomy, a clear commercial mandate (gigawatts delivered), and self-funding through industry levies so it can hire world-class talent at market rates.
Policy Recommendations: Seven Decisions for This Decade
Ireland does not need to commit to 150 GW today. It needs to buy the option. The 2020s should focus on building the machine that builds the wind farms. We propose seven decisions:
1. The Tiger Agency. Legislate an Atlantic Energy Authority with Central Bank independence and IDA commercial focus. Fund it via industry levy. One agency, one mandate: gigawatts delivered.
2. Ports, Grid and Vessels. Commit five billion euro or more to Shannon Foynes and a second Atlantic port. Pre-build grid for 20 to 30 GW. Secure vessel capacity through co-investment or long-term reservation.
3. Planning That Delivers. Create a Critical Atlantic Infrastructure track: state-led environmental pre-clearance, a specialist Planning Court, and time-limited judicial review. Zone for Atlantic Compute on the west coast.
4. The Pathfinder. Auction and deliver one to two gigawatts of true Atlantic floating wind by the early 2030s. The goal is learning, not profit. Prove Ireland can build and maintain floating steel in harsh conditions.
5. The European Deal. Negotiate an Atlantic Sovereignty Bond with the EIB, ECB, and key partners. The bargain: guaranteed supply in exchange for guaranteed capital. Europe backs the bonds; Ireland guarantees the energy.
6. Shield and Skills. Fund Naval Service capacity to protect Atlantic infrastructure. Establish an Atlantic Skills Academy in the west, training 5,000 technicians per year by 2035.
7. The Fund. Establish the Sovereign Energy Fund now, even with modest initial deposits. Lock in the principle: Atlantic revenues are capital for the future, not cash for the current budget.
Conclusion
None of these decisions commits Ireland to 150 GW. Together, they buy the option to scale if technology, markets, and European politics continue to point in that direction. The cost of inaction is that Ireland watches from the sidelines while others capture the opportunity.
By 2075, Ireland will look very different, whatever path it takes. The question is whether we drift into that future or shape it. Denmark demonstrates that a small country can make wind central to its industrial identity. Norway demonstrates that a well-governed sovereign fund can turn a volatile resource into permanent, intergenerational freedom. Ireland’s own IDA history demonstrates that this country is capable of sustaining a multi-decade strategy when the prize is clear.
The Atlantic wind resource is larger than any of those individual stories. But it is not a guarantee; it is a choice. A choice to stop being a price-taker on the edge of Europe and become a pillar of its security. A choice to prioritise long-term wealth over short-term budget fixes. A choice to invite Europe in as a partner in critical infrastructure, not just as a regulator of national decisions.
The storms of the Atlantic will keep coming whether Ireland harnesses them or not. The question is whether we turn that endowment into long-term prosperity and security for Ireland and Europe, or leave the opportunity for others to organise.
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John Burke is an independent policy writer. This paper is adapted from The Irish Atlantic Energy Vision (2025), a full-length discussion paper available at irishlonggame.substack.com. He writes on long-term Irish policy at The Irish Long Game on Substack.
Contact: irishatlanticvision@gmail.comsubstack.com/@irishlonggame
[1]IEA (2019) Offshore Wind Outlook 2019; Global Wind Atlas, Technical University of Denmark/World Bank; SEAI Wind Atlas for Ireland.
[2]WindEurope (2024) ‘Offshore Wind in Europe: Key Trends and Statistics’, annual editions 2020-2024.
[3]Marine Institute of Ireland; Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications.
[4]European Commission (2024) ‘The Future of European Competitiveness’ (Draghi Report), September 2024.
[5]German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK); H2Global Foundation.
[6]European Commission, Connecting Europe Facility awards (2019, 2022); EirGrid project documentation.
[7]UK Offshore Wind Industry Council (2023) ‘Offshore Wind Sector Deal’, updated 2023; Offshore Renewable Energy Catapult reports.
[8]Wind Energy Ireland (2012) ‘Economic Benefits of Wind Energy’.
[9]Norwegian Petroleum Directorate; Ministry of Finance.
[10]Irish Times (2025) ‘Planning bottleneck means Ireland will fall short of offshore wind targets for 2030, says industry’, 19 November 2025.